@techerakh, on 12 August 2012 - 03:05 PM, said in GTW 40:
You want to know who's innocent? I'm innocent. Croc's innocent. Crow's innocent. mrxak is probably innocent. Is that enough info for you?
I'm inclined to disbelieve you about at least one of those.
@techerakh, on 12 August 2012 - 03:05 PM, said in GTW 40:
You want to know who's innocent? I'm innocent. Croc's innocent. Crow's innocent. mrxak is probably innocent. Is that enough info for you?
All 3 of those people were not on the last mission, just like I too was not. Because I know I am innocent, one of those three must therefore be guilty. Unfortunately, there is no way for me to prove my innocence to you, so you will continue to remain deluded in the idea that those three people are all innocent.
This post has been edited by retep998 : 12 August 2012 - 06:33 PM
@retep998, on 12 August 2012 - 03:59 PM, said in GTW 40:
And this is exactly why I continue to reject proposals.
Or it's because you're a traitor. But whatever you need to tell yourself.
@soitbegins, on 12 August 2012 - 06:14 PM, said in GTW 40:
I'm inclined to disbelieve you about at least one of those.
One in particular or one in general?
@techerakh, on 12 August 2012 - 09:13 PM, said in GTW 40:
One in particular or one in general?
One in particular. Specifically, the part of your statement:
Quote
You want to know who's innocent? I'm innocent.
So, who do we need to badger to get their vote in?
Mission #4 Subcommittee by Crow T. Robot
croc
Crow T. Robot
JacaByte
mrxak
retep998
Reject
8.12.12
mrxak -- 9:18
retep998 -- 12:31
Techerakh -- 20:16
8.13.12
SoItBegins -- 13:13
darth_vader -- 14:24
Approve
8.12.12
Crow T. Robot -- 5:28
JacaByte -- 9:30
croc -- 17:53
Result:
Five rejections, three approvals. The motion fails.
The committee proposal consisting of croc, Crow T. Robot, JacaByte, mrxak, and retep998 has been rejected. mrxak is the new speaker, and may choose another five players to form the committee. After five committee rejections, the terrorists win.
@mackilroy, on 13 August 2012 - 04:09 PM, said in GTW 40:
Mission #4 Subcommittee by Crow T. Robot
Wow. Either Jaca is actually innocent or the traitors decided that mission was a lost cause. I did not expect such a round rejection. I'm not feeling so good about the civs' chances any more…
@mrxak, on 13 August 2012 - 04:20 PM, said in GTW 40:
I will be inviting either SoItVader or darth_begins on this next one. I'd like to take some time and figure out if one of them is more likely a sleeper agent than the other. If anyone has comment, please share.
Does this mean you're keeping retep? I strongly recommend you reconsider that. Reread his game thus far and see how it strikes you.
As for SIB v. darth, the conventional wisdom would say SIB, and I guess he's earned it with his round two performance, but I honestly don't have much else to go on. Both have been pretty quiet lately—and really, both could be traitors. Part of me really wants to believe that Jaca's meltdown before the last proposal was just him being himself. The rest of me says 
Sorry for my general quietness. I've been in an event on another online game— Die2Nite— and it's been sapping my concentration a bit.
I do suspect Tcherak, and I'm starting to be unsure about whether my previous belief in mrxak's guilt was correct— but it's only a start. :ninja:
mrxak said:
I will be inviting either SoItVader or darth_begins
Waaaait, I see what you did there.
This post has been edited by SoItBegins : 13 August 2012 - 07:01 PM
Thought that proposal would work. Guess not. Will wait to see what mrxak does.
@techerakh, on 13 August 2012 - 06:25 PM, said in GTW 40:
Does this mean you're keeping retep? I strongly recommend you reconsider that.
@techerakh, on 10 August 2012 - 06:41 AM, said in GTW 40:
The next team needs five people, and the traitors need two people on the team to win it. The best way to do this is to take the four people who weren't on the last team (i.e., mrxak, retep, croc, and CTR, hereafter the "Most Trusted Players" – of whom at most ONE is a traitor) and the ONE person from this team (i.e., SIB, Jaca, darth, and myself) whom you least suspect. But for God's sake be careful whom you choose. Even if you pick the last name out of a hat, the civs still have a 50% chance of winning the game in the next round alone.
Anyone who argues against this proposal is a traitor.
I guess you're a traitor then? 
@soitbegins, on 13 August 2012 - 07:00 PM, said in GTW 40:
Waaaait, I see what you did there.
That was all Mackilroy's doing.
Okay.
So I've been over every single post for accusations or statements of trust.
I've been over every single post for logic and illogic.
I've been over every single post for people behaving in ways contrary to optimal innocent strategy.
I've been over every single post for people behaving in ways contrary to their own statements and beliefs.
I've been over every single post looking for signs of strong emotion.
I've been over every proposal, who it benefits, and how it was made.
I've been over every vote, what it says about the person voting, and how it's affected the game.
I'm not going to list off everything I've learned, because I've come to one simple conclusion from it all. It doesn't matter.
Many of your actions have been in direct contradiction to what you've said you will do, or what you believe about the game. Many of you have either been mistaken or outright lied about the events of the game. Your trust and mistrust of people shifts wildly, with no basis, in great frequency. I am absolutely convinced there are no less than six people in this game actively working to help the terrorists, intentionally or through sheer incompetence. It's quite likely the remaining person who hasn't been acting in the terrorists' interests is in fact one of the sleeper agents, playing it quiet and safe. I am the only sane man in a game of crazies and villains.
So I'm not going to try to weigh the suspicious behaviors of SoItBegins and darth_vader against each other, and figure out which one is slightly less incompetent or evil. I'm certainly not going to weigh them against JacaByte or Techerakh, who have been just as treacherous and clearly nobody wants them on this round's team anyway.
I'm simply going to propose the team I believe has a 50% chance of succeeding (which is all of them worth considering), that is most likely to be approved.
I'm going to use my patent-pending Resistance Trust Index, a metric indicating the level of trust people have invested in each other. The RTI is calculated by adding up all the votes a person has received in their favor on proposals, not including their own vote, and not including the first round. I may refine the RTI later, after some additional thought, but the changes I'd consider probably won't change the relative positions of each relevant player on the Index, so I feel confident going ahead right now.
SoItBegins has an RTI of 13.
darth_vader has an RTI of 5.
Both Techerakh and JacaByte have lower RTI than SoItBegins, as well.
Do I trust SoItBegins more than darth_vader, JacaByte, or Techerakh? No, not really. He has quite a bit of evidence against him, in fact. Unfortunately, the same can be said of all four people I might choose for this mission, as well as many of the others in the MTP list. There has been so much horrible playing from all of you, I'm simply falling back on the RTI as a last resort to make sense of it all, in the hopes that maybe there is some slight fragment of wisdom in the crowd. If this burns us, so be it, we get what we deserve. At a minimum, though, we will gain 100% accurate information on SoItBegins' role, at which point it may be possible to suss out more useful information from voting histories for the final round.
The fact that SoItBegins has been on successful missions twice, compared to the same mission failure that all four possible choices were on, is additional argument in favor of SoItBegins over the other three, but that is reflected within the RTI already.
Based on the RTI, I believe this proposal stands a good chance of being approved, and I certainly hope you agree it represents the best 50% chance we have of winning this round out of all the 50% chances. As long as every player plays so inconsistently and illogically, though, it's impossible to truly differentiate any of you from the bad guys.
The third proposal for the fourth mission is, in alphabetical order:
croc
Crow T. Robot
mrxak
retep998
SoItBegins
@techerakh, on 14 August 2012 - 06:09 AM, said in GTW 40:
Circumstances have changed. You're the one who argued against it at the time.
I argued we should talk it over, and see if we could get more useful information first, not that it was a bad strategy.
Approving this proposal. I agree with mrxak's statement that most of us having been running around accusing everyone (guilty of this as well). Let's trust this proposal and get it through.
