Careful, Techerakh. The last person who claimed there was a perfect strategy was me in the first round, and look at the attacks I got for it later ;).

Personally, I think SoItBegins is most trustworthy of the four from the last team for obvious reasons, if we actually want to follow Techerakh's advice. JacaByte comes after.

Techerakh's strategy guarantees 1 and a half traitors. Obviously Techerakh is saying that's okay because it takes 2 fail votes to fail the fourth mission, but we don't know which way the universe feels like rounding today. His perfect strategy is no better than a coin flip. Can we do better? I think we can probably can. This is not a game of probabilities, and even if it were, 50-50 doesn't thrill me. We should at least talk about it before croc makes her proposal. I'm not sure why anyone should blindly trust Techerakh's strategy after his last round picks had two traitors on it.

Remember if we want heads and it comes up tails, we still need to do a perfect fifth round. I'm not really sure what to do about that now, though. This is the one situation where some of you guys have an advantage over me. I've never played with groups larger than six (where the fourth round rule comes into effect).

@techerakh, on 10 August 2012 - 07:29 AM, said in GTW 40:

I just had a moment of inspiration in the shower (great place for it). Last round, I was able to guarantee that there had already been at least one sleeper agent in the game. Now, I can guarantee that there was at least one sleeper agent in the round 2 team.

You're making an argument that can only convince yourself and darth_vader. The rest of us probably think you're full of crap.

Quote

1. There was one sleeper agent on the round 2 team, and it was either Jaca or croc. This is a straightforward analysis and a very legitimate possibility.

Just in case you're not full of crap, okay fine. Then the person you should be arguing to be on the next team is SoItBegins. I'd go along with that.

Quote

2. There were multiple (two, or even three) sleeper agents on the round 2 team. Consider the implications of this. With multiple sleeper agents, unlike in round 3, they might both/all have decided to vote SUCCEED in order to avoid the disastrous consequence of multiple FAIL votes on the mission. But, as fate would have it, they BOTH/ALL voted SUCCEED, as they both/all had the same thought process.

This I find harder to believe, because otherwise what was the fight all about between JacaByte and I, and him trying to set me up for? Unless it was JacaByte and croc, and darth_vader is the last man. Believable, I suppose, but I don't think that gets us much of anything more than the above scenario.

And this all assumes you're not a bad guy.

Anyway, I slept off-and-on for like 12 hours and it was really quite horrible, and I'm starving, so I'm going to go eat. I'll be back later to see if you accused me of being a sleeper agent because I think it's worth at least discussing if we can beat a coin flip.

It's only a coin flip if we don't discuss it first. We can do better by discussing and analyzing, but adding multiple people from the team that just failed would be lunacy.

Yes, my guarantee presumes I'm innocent (which I am). Also in my haste to get that post out, I made a little mistake. The guarantee is not simply that round 2 had a sleeper agent, it's that either SIB or Jaca was a sleeper agent.

As my previous post says, I don't think SIB would have been a lone agent voting SUCCEED, so the two possibilities are that Jaca was the lone agent or that there were multiple agents. It is IMPOSSIBLE that croc was the only sleeper agent.

Honestly, a Jaca/darth/croc traitor team wouldn't surprise me in the least.

I could definitely see myself voting for a team of the Most Trusted Players plus SIB (though I would still be a better choice).

@techerakh, on 10 August 2012 - 08:33 AM, said in GTW 40:

It's only a coin flip if we don't discuss it first. We can do better by discussing and analyzing, but adding multiple people from the team that just failed would be lunacy.

Yes, my guarantee presumes I'm innocent (which I am). Also in my haste to get that post out, I made a little mistake. The guarantee is not simply that round 2 had a sleeper agent, it's that either SIB or Jaca was a sleeper agent.

As my previous post says, I don't think SIB would have been a lone agent voting SUCCEED, so the two possibilities are that Jaca was the lone agent or that there were multiple agents. It is IMPOSSIBLE that croc was the only sleeper agent.

Honestly, a Jaca/darth/croc traitor team wouldn't surprise me in the least.

I could definitely see myself voting for a team of the Most Trusted Players plus SIB (though I would still be a better choice).

Of course, since it's croc who is picking the next team...

I'm just gonna toss up my document here so people can see the facts so far.
https://docs.google....tne2cLpPzQ/edit

This post has been edited by retep998 : 10 August 2012 - 10:59 AM

Here's my proposal for team #4.

croc (me)
retep998
mrxak
Crow T Robot
Techerakh

IC's logic makes sense, and this was going to be my plan anyway in the case of 2 failure votes on the last team (totally called it by the way).

I am guessing that there is 1 traitor on my team, but it won't matter.

Snce I know I'm innocent, and SIB has been on two successful missions I must conclude that the two sleeper agents on the third mission were darth_vader and Techerakh.

Therefore, I implore croc to put himself, mrxak, SIB, myself and either retep998 or Crow T. Robot on his proposal for the fourth mission. Since retep998 has been on a successful mission in the past, it's probably safe to choose him over Crow T. Robot. Worst case scenario; SIB or retep999 is a sleeper agent and we win anyway. Unless they're both sleeper agents, which not only is highly unlikely since that means the first mission had two sleeper agents on it, but would give us enough information to identify retep998 and SIB as sleeper agents.

@crow-t--robot, on 10 August 2012 - 05:55 AM, said in GTW 40:

Wait, I thought prophile was out and if we are still following the initial order, it would be me next after croc because prophile was supposed to be before croc. Right?

Correct. prophile is out, Techerakh picked in his place. Then it's croc, and then you. Can't skip letting croc pick a committee.

I'll be voting against this one. I still don't trust Techerakh, and frankly he wants it too much.

Jaca's post is exactly what a traitor would write. He wants himself AND SIB on the team? Yeah, OK...

Obviously I'm supporting croc's proposal. It WILL win the game for the civs, if adopted. I promise.

The problem with you, Techerakh is you've come up with a theoretical team of three traitors, and a system of winning this round, but one of your traitors is using your system of winning and including you to do it. So where's the error here? Obviously it's somewhere. You're seeing things wrong, and that gives me a bad feeling about you.

Is it too much to ask for two members who've both been on successful missions, and exclude two members who've been on a mission that failed dramatically?

@mrxak, on 10 August 2012 - 01:40 PM, said in GTW 40:

BOOP BAP BEEDLY BOOP xD!!!!!! DAT !!!! MO MAP MOGGA BAM BIP BIDAP xDDD LMAO!!!!! FEELINGS!!!#!#!#!

JacaByte, that's exactly what I proposed. You can either vote for it or vote against it, as you are wont to do, since you're a traitor. I could hear you s###ting your pants all the way over here in Missouri when there were two fail votes on the last mission.

Actually I never saw your proposal until now.

@mrxak, on 10 August 2012 - 01:40 PM, said in GTW 40:

The problem with you, Techerakh is you've come up with a theoretical team of three traitors, and a system of winning this round, but one of your traitors is using your system of winning and including you to do it. So where's the error here? Obviously it's somewhere. You're seeing things wrong, and that gives me a bad feeling about you.

I didn't come up with that team at all. You did. I said (in response to your post in which you mentioned it) that if it were true, it wouldn't surprise me. You know what did genuinely surprise me? When croc put my name forward for this proposal. Now, it's clear to me that either this is a bold feint by croc, or croc is a civ after all. Either way, the proposal is a good one for the civs, and I support it completely.

I'm sorry you're having a "bad feeling," but it might have more to do with your sleep deprivation issue.

@jacabyte, on 10 August 2012 - 01:48 PM, said in GTW 40:

Is it too much to ask for two members who've both been on successful missions, and exclude two members who've been on a mission that failed dramatically?

I like how you phrased that. What is too much to ask is to include two members from a four-person team that had two traitors on it. It's quite apparent to see why this is a bad idea. Yet, this is what you want to do. Your suggestion is in the traitors' best interest, without question.

If this proposal fails, it should be pretty enlightening to see who opposes it.

Approving this proposal. Let's get that final win for the innocents.

My suggestion is to include the two that were innocent. If you can't see that then clearly you have the traitor's best interests in mind.

@jacabyte, on 10 August 2012 - 05:48 PM, said in GTW 40:

My suggestion is to include the two that were innocent. If you can't see that then clearly you have the traitor's best interests in mind.

Quoting for posterity.

Jaca wants us only to include the two that are innocent. Aren't we lucky that he knows who they are!

mrxak, how is this making you "feel"?

This post has been edited by Techerakh : 10 August 2012 - 06:25 PM

Don't you just love how IC is picking on me even when he has no concrete evidence that I failed the third mission?

I know which members from the third mission are traitors because they had never been on a mission before. This isn't some drawn out bull**** conjecture, this is elementary deduction Sherlock. Since I know I'm innocent, and SIB has been on two successful missions, darth_vader and IC have to be traitors. There are no maybes here, they have to be traitors. Have to be. And yet you're perfectly comfortable with leaving a guaranteed traitor on this proposal.

When you lose this game for the innocents don't come crying to me.

I'm only "picking on" you because you're the only one insisting on making counterproductive suggestions.

SIB voting SUCCEED twice in a row proves absolutely squat. I'd agree that it's likelier than not that he's a civ, but you have absolutely no way of guaranteeing it. It's not an "elementary deduction"; it's a guess —or worse, a lie. Either way, you're digging your own hole here.