@mrxak, on 12 August 2012 - 12:43 AM, said in GTW 40:
I'll state the obvious. Either croc, Crow T. Robot, and Techerakh are the bad guys, or three who voted against this one are. Or a bad guy has some serious cojones and split, hoping to avoid such an obvious grouping (which would leave one good guy on the approve team), when the outcome of the next match turned out badly.
Anyway, certainly very interesting the way this came down, and who ended up on each side.
@jacabyte, on 12 August 2012 - 01:01 AM, said in GTW 40:
I want to wait and see what Crow does before making any immediate decisions about this round of voting, though I suspect at least one of the people who rejected the proposal is innocent, and at least one of the people who approved it is a traitor. Note that all three approve votes were from people who were currently on the proposal. If all three were traitors, we shouldn't have been able to get two fail votes on the third mission unless one of the innocents failed the mission as well.
Jaca's right that mrxak's first possibility is impossible, since we know that two of the traitors were on the previous round's team, and neither croc nor Crow were on that team.
However, I disagree with Jaca's suggestion that at least one of the people who approved the last proposal is a traitor. But more on why Jaca is suspicious later…
@mrxak, on 12 August 2012 - 01:07 AM, said in GTW 40:
Which is why somebody has some serious cojones.
Or, they predicted there'd only be four approval votes, which is not enough, and made the rational choice. We'll have to look at vote declarations and figure things out.
croc, Crow, and I all stated that we were for the proposal. mrxak is the only one who explicitly stated he was against it, though Jaca's arguments against it strongly suggested that he was as well. No one else said anything, but retep could have been expected to vote for the team, as per his standard policy. That he did not is noteworthy. SIB and darth gave no inclination whatsoever.
From this, I think it's extremely unlikely that a traitor decided there would be at most four approval votes.
The most likely scenario is that all three traitors voted against the last proposal.
@retep998, on 12 August 2012 - 01:28 AM, said in GTW 40:
So, just to remind everyone, our goal is to select a team comprising everyone who was NOT on the last mission and a single person who was. The last mission had 4 people, of which we know two must be traitors. Therefore the single person we need to choose from that mission has a 50% chance of being innocent. Now, suppose there were actually three traitors on the last mission, and one selected not to vote fail, then we're basically guaranteed to win, however this is quite unlikely. So basically, we need to pick the most innocent out of these four people:
darth_vader
JacaByte
Techerakh
SoItBegins
Feel free to offer proposals for how we should select the most innocent member. I'd prefer something akin to the hunger games.
Hey, thanks for finally showing up. This is exactly what I posted last round, and if you (and the other civ) had voted approve , we would have won the game already. But I'm glad to see you're finally on board.
@crow-t--robot, on 12 August 2012 - 06:27 AM, said in GTW 40:
Okay, here is the proposal I would like to submit.
Crow T. Robot
mrxak
JacaByte
croc
retep998
Swapped out Techerakh for JacaByte. Let see what you folks think.
I think this is a terrible idea. Of Jaca, SIB, and darth, of whom two are definitely traitors, Jaca is easily the most suspicious. If we put forward this team, and it fails, we will learn that Jaca is definitely a traitor, but we still won't know which of the Most Trusted Players (again, that's Crow, mrxak, croc, and retep) is guilty.
@mrxak, on 12 August 2012 - 10:30 AM, said in GTW 40:
Too late, you already outed yourself. You said it yourself, there was no reason to hesitate if you were innocent because there'd only be one bad guy. And yet you did. Why? Because it's not enough for you to fail this mission, you need to fail the next one too, and failing this mission makes you 100% a sleeper agent to everyone's knowledge.
mrxak is right; Jaca's initial hesitance over this proposal is totally damning. If he were innocent, he would know that this proposal would be a surefire win for the civs. That he had to consider at all means that other factors are at play (namely, he's a traitor).
Civs, don't support this proposal.
The big question to me right now, is which of the Most Trusted Players is the third traitor. I seriously doubt it's croc or Crow, after what happened last round. That leaves only mrxak and retep. mrxak is pushing hard against Jaca, who did just basically out himself. That leaves retep, who, again voted fail against a mission he was on because it was going to lose the game for the traitors.
Ladies and gentlemen, your traitors: Jaca, retep, (SIB/darth)
edit: inserting a quote of the mrxak post that I agree with
This post has been edited by Techerakh : 12 August 2012 - 11:30 AM