@jacabyte, on 21 May 2012 - 11:27 PM, said in Global Thermonuclear War:
Let's have another look at why I'm voting for Crow T. Robot;
Crow T. Robot voted for me initially in the first round, reflexively because I voted for him. mud212 was the second to vote for him, and Crow T. Robot ended up changing his vote to mud212 after I changed mine to mud212 as well. mud212 ended up being the lynch target as well as the terrorist target. This is highly unusual, and if you had been paying attention to my earlier posts you would have found that all of us who are alive now were alive when it became apparent that mud212 would be lynched. The terrorists, whomever they are, had plenty of time to change they target. But they did not.
"I know that," the man in the blue suit said. "I know everybody was active after then. Which means they decided not to do so. I assumed it was to throw suspicion away from those who HAD voted for mud, which is why I'm suspicious of you and Crow."
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In the next round prophile was the first to vote for Crow T. Robot. I voted for him as well. prophile ended up being the terrorist target, and it was found that he was the IA. I find it extremely likely that prophile had investigated Crow T. Robot and found that he was a terrorist.
During this round he changed his vote to me to exact a tie between himself and I. In the event that this round ends in a tie somebody innocent is guaranteed to be killed at the hands of the terrorists. Let me repeat that: if there is a tie the terrorists get a free kill, and it will be somebody innocent. If Crow T. Robot were innocent, then he's nothing better than an aide to the terrorists at this point.
You would be stupid not to lynch Crow T. Robot this round.
"Hmm..." the man in blue said. "You may be right."
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But he's not the only delegate I'm suspicious of, only the one I am most certain is a terrorist.
SoItBegins is my second candidate for being a terrorist. He bandwagoned on mud212 during the first round and ensured that mud212 was lynched, and then he did the same to mrxak during the second round. Normally that's not suspicious in and of itself, but during the third round you voted for me, because I asked you a simple question about why only three of us were potentially traitors when, in fact, all of us are potentially traitors, and I had stated this earlier in the round;
So you if you were reading you would have known this before I asked you why you were singling out three of us when that logically holds no water. And that post I linked to? You made it, so you should have known that the premise of "mud212 was targeted because the terrorists were inactive" is false and of any of us could still be terrorists in spite of the fact that you have poor reading comprehension.
Another thing that peaked my curiosity was when Crow T. Robot initially voted for you. Assuming Crow T. Robot is a terrorist, a vote for you would guarantee that attention would be drawn away from you, which is a tactic you used as a traitor in a previous GTW game.
So either you're a traitor or just a really bad diplomat.
The man threw back his head at this one, laughing loud enough to shake the table. "I knew I've habitually been a bad diplomat," he said, his voice merry. "What I said just now about suspicion still stands— to repeat, the lynch wasn't changed to throw suspicion away from someone who voted for mud. As for Crow voting for me— if he is a terrorist, then wouldn't he suspect that by voting for me, apparently to throw suspicion away from me, he'd draw it towards me? Now, I don't know Crow, but he may know my track record, and I've been a scapegoat for every bad guy from here to kingdom come.
I don't doubt I'll be forced in that role for some time, but let me explain myself.
In the first round, of course I bandwagoned! It seemed like one was building on mud212, so I jumped onto it. It was the first day. What else would you do?
In the second round, well, mrxak's skewering of Shlimazel and kasofa seemed unduly agressive. I thought whether to vote for him, or Shlim; finally I decided on him, mostly to see what would happen. In particular, I wanted to see his response. I never saw a reason to change my vote, though it was obviously the wrong choice."
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Shlimazel is my third candidate. Each time he's voted it has been to bandwagon on somebody else; his vote for mud212 was the third and his vote for mrxak was the third and final vote. A tie breaker, in fact. Not suspicious in an of itself, but mrxak is right that it's illogical to defend somebody whose role you don't know (even though mrxak had made a logical error himself and was lynched for it) and then Shlimazel apologized to mrxak after his death;
The alternative was to vote for Crow T. Robot. Assuming Crow T. Robot is a terrorist, wouldn't breaking the tie to favor Crow T. Robot have been fortuitous? We'd have nabbed a traitor in the second round and then be free to speculate on who the next traitor was.
If Shlimazel is innocent there was a 50/50 chance of him voting for Crow T. Robot or for mrxak. If Crow T. Robot is a traitor, and Shlimazel is his partner, there was a 100% chance of him voting for mrxak. Shlimazel wouldn't oust his partner unless he was forced to, would he? But that's not enough to prove his guilt IMO.
And next you have Kasofa1 and nfreader. Kasofa voted for nfreader during the first round and nfreader made some seemingly random votes. Then they did jack squat the second round. And this round Kasofa voted for nfreader again, and nfreader voted for a dead man. A dead man, for crying out loud.
And I am the only person whom I know, for certain, is innocent.
The man pointed out, "And I'm the only person who I know lives in a tent, so we're even."
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So I see three possibilities, in the event that there are two traitors; either Crow T. Robot and SoItBegins are partners in treachery, Crow T. Robot and Shlimazel are traitors, or Kasofa1 and nfreader are traitors, in the highly unlikely event that Crow is not a traitor.
I beg you, vote for Crow T. Robot this round. If I'm wrong about his role, then we're all dead anyway. It could be an elaborate trap, but why would I stick my neck out so far to ensure that Crow T. Robot gets lynched unless I was certain about his role as a traitor?
The man thought it over, weighing his words. "Let's see," he said. "I'll accept your examples, but with just a few differences. I suppose Kasofa and nfreader could be suspicious, but while they're a possible pairing, I don't really suspect them. The other choices are:
• Crow and Shlimazel — we've already touched on this one.
• Crow and JacaByte — This doesn't seem possible. Not when one's voting for the other, and seems deadly willing to follow it through. Not yet, anyway.
• Shlimazel and JacaByte — Could be."
"You know," finished the man, "the weak link in this chain is Shlimazel! How about we agree to put aside our differences and vote for him? We can resolve this whole Crow-said Jaca-said business later. It'll resolve the problem of ties, anyway."
His placard changed to Shlimazel.
This post has been edited by SoItBegins : 22 May 2012 - 05:12 AM
