darth_vader said:

Well, all I can say is, vote RJC Ultra next round, after I die.

Uhhh, guys, you realize that this is almost certain to be the last round? There's three ways this can go from here.

1. You catch the terrorist, and the innocents win with 3 people. (25% chance)

2. You don't catch the terrorist, and he kills again, leaving one innocent and one terrorist left alive. So, the terrorists win. (50% chance)

The only way there could be another round is the third way:

3. You don't catch the terrorist, but the SDI stops him from killing anyone. This would leave 2 innocents and the terrorist left alive.
   (25% chance)

So it's more than likely that someone will win this round. Now, since everybody's voted, we can stir some good stuff up!

This post has been edited by SoItBegins : 13 December 2007 - 07:01 PM

Except that I haven't PM'ed kickme with the name of the player I want to protect yet.
Partly because I haven't decided yet. He may be holding everything up until he gets that, I don't know.

This game, he insisted that the SDI should only work against Night-Kills.

That doesn't seem quite fair to me, though... It should have been able to protect against Lynchings as well. Not that it was relevant this game, but just on principle.

If the nation with an SDI has made preparations to protect itself, it shouldn't matter whether the attack is UN sponsored or not, they'd use it to defend themselves anyway , a la Mackilroy's self-defense many games ago, which in turn lead to a victory over the dictators Mispeled and (incidentally) darth_vader.

(EDIT) Further, some of those probabilities seem to be off to me.

The raw probability of killing a terrorist this round is 1/3, 33.3%, not 1/4, 25%.
Thus, the probability of not killing a terrorist is 2/3, 66.7%.

From there, the SDI comes into play.
Obviously, I'm not going to protect a player who's about to get lynched, since kickme tells me it won't work like that.

So. If darth isn't the terrorist, then the possibility of me successfully preventing the next Night-Kill requires both me and the terrorist to select the same player. 1/2 x 1/3 = 1/6, 16.7%.

This is after the 66.7% chance that we select the wrong player to lynch, so .666 x .167 = .111, 11.1% chance that we go into one final round.

This post has been edited by Eugene Chin : 13 December 2007 - 08:07 PM

How is that first probability off? There are four players. If everyone were voting randomly, each player would have an equal chance of getting bumped off (excluding the low probability of a tie). If the reason the probability is different is because you're the SDI, then Eugene, I'm sorry to say this, but you still could be lying about your role. Trust nobody.

So the chance of going on to one more round is still about 1 in 4, if everyone votes non-deterministically.

Which I know they won't.

All this talk that it's the last round, even if you fail horribly this round.

But you don't know how I do tie breakers

Aw man, I thought that you were posting to end the round and I would get to say "Told you so." Guess I'll have to wait.

I want to see more arguing. No arguing about why not to be voted for makes for a boring round, IMO.

@kickme, on Dec 14 2007, 03:12 AM, said in GTW XIV:

All this talk that it's the last round, even if you fail horribly this round.

But you don't know how I do tie breakers

What tie-breaker? The vote is skewed 3 to 1.

... are you still holding the round for the SDI PM?

At SIB:
The enemy tried to Night-Kill me on the first round, and were blocked. There's no way I could have set that up if I was a dictator. At the very least, it proves I'm not guilty.

There's also no reason for me to lie about being the SDI. It isn't an information role, and I cannot offer the certainty that an I.A.'s investigation can. All I have are my own observations of the players around me, and the conclusions I can draw from that.

I was really surprised that they didn't try to Night-Kill me again in round 2, but if darth was the other dictator, he'd know that such an event would draw attention to him like a lightning-rod.

@darth_vader, on Dec 13 2007, 03:17 AM, said in GTW XIV:

Well gee. Thanks for the credit for such a sneaky plot, but I'm really not that creative.

Oh, you're just being modest. I think you're capable of it.

This post has been edited by Eugene Chin : 13 December 2007 - 10:38 PM

if two innocents die this round, next round is likely to end with a tie-breaker.

I'm waiting for a funnier round

@kickme, on Dec 14 2007, 03:27 AM, said in GTW XIV:

if two innocents die this round, next round is likely to end with a tie-breaker.

I'm waiting for a funnier round

Uh...

If the number of Dictators equals, or is greater than, the number of Innocent players, shouldn't the Dictators be able to just rise up in open revolution at that point?

There's no point whatever, that I can see, to having another round if there's only one Dictator and one Innocent.

(EDIT) Wait.

Are... Are you hinting we're aiming at the wrong guy right now?

(EDITx2) Oh, I see. You were talking in context about how everyone's saying "If we screw this up, it's over," when we don't know that it'll really be over.

(EDITx3) Just some additional thoughts here.

The first round ended late because I had forgotten to send kickme a PM about who to protect ( Boy was I lucky he waited for me!). I also took a little too much time deciding who to protect during round 3. I almost said Manta, but changed my mind at the last moment. Sorry, Manta.

When darth came out swinging against RJC, it really only fed into pre-existing suspicions.

RJC Ultra just didn't strike me as suspicious for his vote against darth, as I had almost done the same. Further, he has an even longer cycle-time between posts than Anon seems to.

darth's allegation that RJC was protecting Mackilroy just didn't hold water with me. RJC Ultra got onto the darth bandwagon before Mackilroy was in any danger, before Mack needed any Dictatorial protection.

If I had had to choose between Anon and RJC, I'd have said that Anon was the more suspicious of the two, for sticking against Manta so insistently, the final Night-Kill being a possible attempt at double-think ("Why would I do something so obvious as Night-Kill the guy I was trying to get Lynched? Because no one would believe I had been that obvious, that's why!").

But even Manta's Night-Kill makes more sense if it were coming from darth ("I've wanted to get rid of this guy, but since someone else is still voting against him, I'll let everyone see me get off the bandwagon now. Then Night-Kill the guy later. Let the one still on the bandwagon take the flak for it.").

But RJC as the Dictator? Meh.

(EDITx4) If it's alright, kickme, I'll have my decision on who to protect to you sometime tomorrow.

Goodnight, all. (It's 12:20 where I am.)

This post has been edited by Eugene Chin : 14 December 2007 - 12:21 AM

I am the evil dictator.

@mrxak, on Dec 14 2007, 03:08 PM, said in GTW XIV:

I am the evil dictator.

You're not a dictator, you're just weird. It's a small difference...

No, it's an incredibly miniscule, Planck-width difference.

This is turning out to be a very long game.

Round 13 was shorter...

Knock knock.

Who's there?

Oscar who?

Oscar.

Oscar silly question, get a silly answer!

HO HO HO HO

Still waiting on the SDI.

If I don't get told soon, mt_rand() will decide.