1 - Renegades.
2 - Even
3 - Renegades or Independents (it depends on several crucial events)
4 - Renegades
To explain furthur on number 3, here is my version of events:
1-Renegade/Militia war continues on, neither side winning'
2-Renegades use their superior ships, power, and unifying spirit to start to push back and defeat Militia forces.
Here is the crucial part.
3-At this point, a major government may intervene. If the Igadzra or Azdgari come to the rescue of the ST Militia (strandless) the ST Renegades will loose. If they don't, the ST Militia will loose. If the UE help the Independents, then the Human Renegades loose. If they don't, then the Human Renegades win.
4-(continuing on the assumption that the militia loose) Renegades become more power and then become a major government, being a threat to even the major governments. UE easily loose against the Human Renegades, ST Renegades press against the Igadzra, the Azdgari loose all territories in the South Tip, NT Renegades press against the Zacha.
5-UE falls to continuing Voinian/Renegade incursions. Igadzra fall to Zidagar/Azdgari/ST Renegade forces. Zidagar start to loose in NT Asteroid belt. Zacha defeated. Miranu coreworlds in trouble. Renegades dominate the galaxy, etc. etc.
However, if any of the major governments DID intervene, then this is what would happen:
4-Human Renegades are pushed back by the UE. ST Renegades are crushed by the Igadzra and Azdgari. NT Renegades loose constantly to Zidagar and Zacha forces.
5-Human Renegades are almost gone. ST Renegades gone. NT Renegades gone. Human Renegades soon are destroyed. Voinians start to loose now that the UE can completely consontrate their navy on them. Zidagar/Igadzra/Azdgari war escilates.
6-Voinians fall to Emalgha/Hinwar/UE forces. Zidagar and Azdgari defeat Igadzra. However, the Azdgari have a slight tactical advantage, and soon the Zidagar are defeated.
7-Miranu are angered, declare war on Azdgari. Azdgari fight back. Miranu/Zacha loose immediately. UE help Miranu. All former Human and ST Renegade space taken by Azdgari. UE loose immediately to the superior Azdgari.
8-Miranu fall to Azdgari. UE continue to be pushed back and beaten by the Azdgari. Emalgha loose instantly. Former Voinian space in danger.
9-Core UE worlds fall to Azdgari (including Earth, bwa ha ha ha!). Northern Voinian space taken, though Azdgari suffer heavy lossess. Hinwar fall. Remaining UE/Hinwar/Emalgha forces fight valiantly. Azdgari suffer massive lossess, but soon they are the rulers of the galaxy after eliminating the last remaining UE/Hinwar/Emalgha forces.
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To Escape Velocity: Nova and Beyond!
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Millennium. Its coming, prepare for it.
Coming to the (url="http://"http://www.ambrosiaSW.com/games/ev/chronicles.html")EV Chronicles(/url).