@mackilroy, on Sep 29 2007, 08:05 PM, said in GTW Round VII:

It's close enough.

And besides, prophile, mrxak voted first, to get the heat off of him. He goes first, people think, hey, maybe he's got an inside track on who the evil dudes are, and he's fine. If he turns up the heat on someone else then he avoids detection himself.

That's slightly flawed logic, someone's got to vote first. I mean, I'm not saying mrxak's not suspicious, because he is, but someone's got to start the accusations off otherwise we get no votes.

Since I have no idea, I will rely on a random number generator. mrxak = Odd, Mackilroy = Even.

To avoid bias, I shall run it 5 times, and post the results here. The highest total of odd vs even will get my vote.

1 15 20 13 14 6 3 12 5 0
13 19 15 7 6 5 1 20 9 12
9 1 10 0 6 7 12 2 17 14
20 3 1 13 10 16 12 9 19 17
18 15 2 3 9 13 17 4 14 10

mrxak 's number - 260
Mackilroy's number - 240

@mrxak, on Sep 29 2007, 10:24 AM, said in GTW Round VII:

rebelswin_85, you only voted for me because I spoke up first, but I can ignore that fact if you change your vote now. If you don't agree with my vote for Mackilroy, feel free to vote for anybody else that your conscience demands.

Incorrect. I voted for you because, according to your logic, the type of person who votes first is likely a dictator this game. Also, if you read my post, I made the statement that I found cleverness to be suspicious, and you were most clever. Furthermore, I found your actions suspicious. You are trying very hard to manipulate the vote, enforcing a test that you yourself came up with and trying to get others to follow it. However, I find even more suspicious the band-wagoning against you. So for the time being I retract my vote, though I still don't find you entirely free of suspicion.

This post has been edited by rebelswin_85 : 29 September 2007 - 08:33 PM

Standby, counting votes...

nfreader looked at himself in his office mirror, trying to decide on a good look. Thinking quickly, he decided to roll up his sleeves and loosen his tie for that good old 'I've been up for 24 hours' look. Smirking confidently to himself, he gathered his papers and left for the briefing room.

Five minutes later, consul nfreader entered the room, and without a word, passed out the results of the voting and took his seat at the head of table. mrxak quickly stood up, looking extremely flustered. "I, uh, I have to go, uh, do something important..." he said, stumbling out of the room. There was a quick scuffle outside the door followed by a muffled bang. nfreader drummed his fingers on the table impatiently, the sound echoing around the suddenly silent room. An aide quickly entered the room and whispered into nfreader's ear. Smiling widely, he quickly stood up and beamed at the assembled leaders. "Gentlemen, we got him! Unfortunately, there's still one more left. We don't know WHO it is, but I just learned that they'll be striking soon. We need to act NOW to stop them from striking. My intelligence agent needs to tell me who he thinks the person is and I NEED A DAMNED CUP OF COFFEE." With that he stormed out of the room, slamming the door loudly behind him.

Vote one final tally
----
mrxak
Mackilroy 3
Eugene Chin 1
Rebelswin 1

Our logic sucks, but our guns beat your logic, mrxak. Next problem, Carol.

And to think, I almost retracted my vote to stall for more time. My gut knows more about this game than I do.

w00t!

This post has been edited by Eugene Chin : 30 September 2007 - 01:15 AM

@nfreader, on Sep 29 2007, 11:13 PM, said in GTW Round VII:

Vote one final tally
----
mrxak
Mackilroy 3
Eugene Chin 1
Rebelswin 1

How in the world did mrxak get zero votes?

Anyhow, awesome to see we got one dictator right off the bat.

The mood in the breifing room was much more reserved the next morning. Despite taking out one of the seperatists, the other had struck in the middle of the night. That morning, the leaders woke up to find a mushroom cloud lingering over the Chinese mainland, broadcast to the world by CNN. nfeader turned off the TV and turned around to face the congregation. "Gentlemen, half a billion people are dead, along with prime minister Mackilroy. The man responsible for those deaths is in this room. Stop him, before he strikes again!"

1Eevee1 , you have some explaining to do. How could you condone the bombing of your own people?

... what makes 1Eevee1 a likely terrorist?

If he were an Evil player, he wouldn't have needed a random number generator to select his vote, let alone have dropped it on mrxak's head.

One dictator voting against another can throw off suspicion from the accuser; but in the first round of a game, it is an insane risk, especially if carried through to a lynch. It is a ploy better suited for the late game.

For the same reason, I consider you, Gutless, another likely innocent...

But as you and 1Eevee1 both know from the last three games, I have a notoriously low tolerance for "Teh Dumb."

This post has been edited by Eugene Chin : 30 September 2007 - 12:47 PM

@nfreader, on Sep 30 2007, 10:05 AM, said in GTW Round VII:

"Gentlemen, half a billion people are dead, along with prime minister Mackilroy. The man responsible for those deaths is in this room. Stop him, before he strikes again!"

I'm sad.

mrxak, how dare you have your terrorist counterpart nuke me! Just kidding.

Get 'em for me, boys!

With no other very suspects around (apart from perhaps Gutless, but I'll reserve judgment there for now), I have no choice but to vote nfreader (retracted)

STOP CHANGING MY VOTES PEOPLE

This post has been edited by prophile : 01 October 2007 - 11:01 AM
Reason for edit: There you go.

GutlessWonder, I must ask you this.

Why would you accuse me? I do not have access to nuclear weapons without asking permission from our fellow comrades. Indeed, accusing somebody just because they are Chinese means that you are more likely the terrorist then I.

Justify your accusation of me, GutlessWonder.

@eugene-chin, on Sep 30 2007, 12:44 PM, said in GTW Round VII:

One dictator voting against another can throw off suspicion from the accuser; but in the first round of a game, it is an insane risk, especially if carried through to a lynch. It is a ploy better suited for the late game.

For this reason, I find rebelswin_85 retracted to be extremely suspicious. He voted for mrxak when it was relatively safe to do so, but retracted his vote when the vote went the other way.

My vote this round may be easily swayed. I don't trust my own judgement, having selected Mack over mrxak last round. I thought it was a 50/50 shot that one was a terrorist and the other wasn't. I just picked the wrong 50. So, if anyone can give me a good reason to change my mind, I will.

Anon:
An excerpt From The Chin Analysis: Coming Soon To A Forum Near You.

rebelswin_85: Too Soon To Call.
rebelswin_85 started the ball rolling against mrxak, triggering the retaliation of mrxak's bogus "Test."

Still, it is curious that mrxak didn't bother to change his vote to rebelswin_85. The only player who ever cast against rebels was kickme, who retracted later.

Speaking of retractions, rebels pulled his vote against mrxak at the last minute, citing bandwagoning. Still, it could easily be an unfortunate innocent second-guessing himself, or an Evil player hoping to cause those in the anti-mrxak bloc to second-guess ourselves.

Hence, Too Soon To Call, though I am leaning towards considering him innocent.

This is somewhat confusing. I already had a partial picture with mrxak as innocent, but the fact that he was actually guilty throws things off a bit.

@1eevee1, on Sep 30 2007, 05:45 PM, said in GTW Round VII:

GutlessWonder, I must ask you this.

Why would you accuse me? I do not have access to nuclear weapons without asking permission from our fellow comrades. Indeed, accusing somebody just because they are Chinese means that you are more likely the terrorist then I.

Justify your accusation of me, GutlessWonder.

Your random numbers are your downfall, as is your insistence on the reliance of your comrades. I propose that the numbers weren't random, and the late vote against mrxak was only to throw suspicion off of yourself.

I propose that if I came up by those numbers by myself, that I would have been a sad little man.

Let's see you run a RNG, GutlessWonder, and let's see the results you get.

I've been working on this for the better part of the day, and I called on some of it earlier, so it may seem as if I am re-treading old ground in a few places.

Considering the vitriol being exchanged between GutlessWonder and 1Eevee1, I feel I need to put this out sooner, rather than later. As such, it may seem to be a less-than-polished document.

The Chin Analysis:
--------------------------------------------------
"Ex Veritas Et Lux, Justitia"
aut
"Respice Adspice Prospice"

Issue 1, Volume 1

mrxak: Evil, Dead.
Killed by four votes, a one-vote majority.

As I said earlier, one dictator voting against another can throw off suspicion from the accuser, but it is a stupid risk in the first round of a game. If the other traitor was in this voting bloc, then he's signed onto a particularly bad plan, as he only needs to make one more mistake, and the innocents win.

Addendum: mrxak started the game off by pointing the finger at GutlessWonder, but also intimated against prophile and myself.

@mrxak, on Sep 28 2007, 06:00 AM, said in GTW Round VII:

<snip>
All I have to go on so far is who I would pick if I was running this game, and it's more than probable that with the set-up this game has, GutlessWonder would be one of them. The second person? Probably Eugene Chin or prophile, but I'm not prepared to accuse either of those people until I've determined everybody in the UK or US is innocent.
<snip>

Mackilroy: Innocent, Dead.
I'm coming up blank on why the remaining terrorist would kill Mack, except that he may have thought that last round's result had clearly exonerated Mackilroy as an innocent.

Speculation is welcome on this topic.

----------------------------------------

Eugene Chin:
I consider myself to be a nice guy, though I doubt that will convince anyone.

mrxak tried to rebuke me several times last round, especially concerning my opinions of kickme's initial vote, and about my lack of commitment. His last post sent up Lots Of Black Flags (heh) for me, though.

At the time, my vote against him pushed mrxak into a tie with Mackilroy. rebelswin_85's comment about bandwagoning on mrxak had me doubting my own vote, but it turns out I was right this time.

1Eevee1: Likely Innocent.
If he were an Evil player, he wouldn't have needed a random number generator, let alone have dropped one on mrxak's head. Further, a terrorist could have just as easily justified voting against Mackilroy as mrxak; that is, chosing to vote against Mack, and then claiming that it was the result of random numbers. 1Eevee1 could have forced the round into a tiebreaker, instead of offing mrxak.

Since his actions don't make sense coming from a terrorist, 1Eevee1 is likely innocent.

GutlessWonder: Likely Innocent.
When Gutless cast his vote, it put mrxak into the lead. If Gutless were the second traitor, he would have been just as easily been able to cast against Mackilroy. Further, if a traitor, the sheer brinksmanship involved in voting for his partner when a tie was in place is a staggering lapse in judgment.

Thus, since GutlessWonder's actions in the first round would make little sense coming from a terrorist, he is likely innocent.

I'll admit that his actions this round make about as much sense as "Daring to be Stupid," thus opening the possibility that he is capable of he sort of logical lapses an Evil player in his position would have required to act as he did.

----------------------------------------

rebelswin_85: Too Soon To Call.
rebelswin_85 started the ball rolling against mrxak, triggering the retaliation of mrxak's bogus "Test."

Still, it is curious that mrxak didn't bother to change his vote to rebelswin_85. The only player who ever cast against rebels was kickme, who retracted later.

Speaking of retractions, rebels pulled his vote against mrxak at the last minute, citing bandwagoning. Still, it could easily be an unfortunate innocent second-guessing himself, or an Evil player hoping to cause those in the anti-mrxak bloc to second-guess ourselves.

On his own, however, rebelswin_85's retraction had no impact on the final result.

Hence, Too Soon To Call, though I am leaning towards considering him innocent.

Anon: Too Soon To Call.
Anon started out by pointing out a hypothetical situation that turned out to be almost exactly what mrxak was actually up to.

He didn't seem too sure of himself in that post, though.

When Mackilroy voted against mrxak, Anon aligned against Mack

kickme: Too Soon To Call.
Notoriously effective lurker. His posts are typically short, and come at wide intervals.

He voted against rebelswin_85, shortly after rebels voted against mrxak. His only stated reasoning behind his vote was that it was "Dishonorable to vote against your fellow countryman," believing that this marked rebels as a traitor.

kickme later retracted his vote and did not recast, but by then rebelswin_85 had already fallen behind Mackilroy and mrxak in votes.

kickme didn't align with either the anti-mrxak or the anti-Mack crowds, and my understanding of his methods is elusive at best. Hence, Too Soon To Call.

----------------------------------------

prophile:
Stated that he thought Mackilroy was bandwagoning against mrxak. He and Mack traded some unconvincing arguments with each other, and prophile stuck to his guns. In this case, however, he happened to be wrong.

mrxak made throwaway comments about prophile being a terrorist, but this never resulted in a commitment.

darth_vader:
Voted against me, stating that I was jumping on kickme, with no real explanation; claiming that I was merely restating the fact that it was the first round and we had nothing to go on yet.

Naturally, I percieve this as inaccurate. While I did rephrase that fact, the crux of my post was that kickme's argument was, at its core, ideologing; that the stated reasoning behind it was unsound. This is the argument I reinforced the next time I posted; not that it was too soon and we had nothing to go on, but that going on ideologing was worse than nothing.

I didn't even vote against kickme.

----------------------------------------

I've said it before, one dictator voting against another, in the first round, of a game, is a bad risk.

The only reason I can think of for mrxak to agree to such a baton-pass / suicide is if he believed that his over-frequent selection as a dictator had sapped his potential; that the rest of us had developed some sort of immunity to his machinations, or a tendancy to think the worst of him when he appears as a player.

The only way I would consider such a plan, In The First Round, is if I could be sure within reason that the surviving dictator was enshrined by the ploy as being above all evil.

As an exaggerated, RPG-ish example of when such a plan might be viable, consider the evil duet of "Lecherous Old Man" and "Damsel in Distress."

Quote

'Lecherous Old Man' is disliked by the community.

'Damsel in Distress' has the appearance and mannerisms on an ingenue.

'Lecherous Old Man," realizing that, once the bodies start piling up, the community will quickly turn against him, agrees to a plan that will cement 'Damsel in Distress,' in the minds of the community, as an innocent.

Thus, 'Lecherous Old Man' votes to lynch 'Damsel in Distress,' and give some slightly off-bogus reasoning

'Damsel in Distress' will protest innocence.

The more chivalrous members of the community will, hopefully, assail 'Lecherous Old Man' for his reasoning, and his obsessiveness, claiming that he has ulterior motives for accusing 'Damsel in Distress.'

When 'Lecherous Old Man' is lynched and revealed as evil, the community will look upon 'Damsel in Distress' with sympathy, and then, hopefully, never look at her as a suspect again.

'Damsel in Distress' now has a free hand to murder everyone.

(Edit) Wall of text crits you for 9999999 ASCII damage.

This post has been edited by Eugene Chin : 30 September 2007 - 08:26 PM